TY - JOUR

T1 - Diffusing political concerns

T2 - How unemployment information passed between social ties influences Danish voters

AU - Alt, James E.

AU - Jensen, Amalie

AU - Larreguy, Horacio

AU - Lassen, David D.

AU - Marshall, John

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Southern Political Science Association. All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/11/10

Y1 - 2021/11/10

N2 - While social pressure is widely believed to influence voters, evidence that information passed between social ties affects beliefs, policy preferences, and voting behavior is limited. We investigate whether information about unemployment shocks diffuses through networks of strong and mostly weak social ties and influences voters in Denmark. We link surveys with population-level administrative data that log unemployment shocks afflicting respondents’ familial, vocational, and educational networks. Our results show that the share of second-degree social ties—individuals that voters learn about indirectly—that became unemployed within the last year increases a voter’s perception of national unemployment, self-assessed risk of becoming unemployed, support for unemployment insurance, and voting for left-wing political parties. Voters’ beliefs about national aggregates respond to all shocks similarly, whereas subjective perceptions and preferences respond primarily to unemployment shocks afflicting second-degree ties in similar vocations. This suggests that information diffusion through social ties principally affects political preferences via egotropic—rather than sociotropic—motives.

AB - While social pressure is widely believed to influence voters, evidence that information passed between social ties affects beliefs, policy preferences, and voting behavior is limited. We investigate whether information about unemployment shocks diffuses through networks of strong and mostly weak social ties and influences voters in Denmark. We link surveys with population-level administrative data that log unemployment shocks afflicting respondents’ familial, vocational, and educational networks. Our results show that the share of second-degree social ties—individuals that voters learn about indirectly—that became unemployed within the last year increases a voter’s perception of national unemployment, self-assessed risk of becoming unemployed, support for unemployment insurance, and voting for left-wing political parties. Voters’ beliefs about national aggregates respond to all shocks similarly, whereas subjective perceptions and preferences respond primarily to unemployment shocks afflicting second-degree ties in similar vocations. This suggests that information diffusion through social ties principally affects political preferences via egotropic—rather than sociotropic—motives.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - beliefs

KW - information

KW - social networks

KW - Unemployment

KW - voting behavior

U2 - 10.1086/714925

DO - 10.1086/714925

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85115617250

VL - 84

JO - Journal of Politics

JF - Journal of Politics

SN - 0022-3816

ER -